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Remember catching a glimpse of 2015 in “Back to the Future 2”? We’re kind of doing that to 2050- but with much more accuracy. No, we’re not talking about auto-sizing jackets, Mr. Fusions, or multiple ties… however, we’re first in line for floating hoverboards. Instead, we’re talking about solar.
In September of 2021, the Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy released a Solar Futures Study. That study showed that by 2050, as much as 45% of electricity in the grid could come from solar.
Here are some key items to point out from that study:
Executive summary… simplified-
Dramatic improvements to solar technology have enabled rapid growth in the industry and are providing cost-effective options for clean energy. The Solar Futures Study explores the role of solar in “decarbonizing” the grid through 2050.
By using state-of-the-art modeling, the study created three potential scenarios and observed the impacts each scenario had.
The first scenario, “reference”, followed what would happen if we continued with the current state and federal policies and had no other major pushes for decarbonization.
The second scenario, “decarb”, studied a future where there was an even greater push to decarbonize the grid. The policies put in place would have an end goal of 100% carbonization reduction by 2050.
The third scenario, “decarb+E”, goes a step further than “decarb” by including large-scale electrification of buildings, transportation, and industrial processes. In this scenario, electricity demand grows by about 30% from 2020 to 2035, and an additional 34% from 2035
to 2050. By 2050, all these electrified sectors are powered by clean (zero-carbon) electricity.
The findings… simplified-
In the “reference” scenario, where there was no additional push to switch to clean energy, they still saw solar increase by a factor of 7.
This increase caused carbonization to drop by 45% in the year 2035 and 61% in the year 2050. The most important thing to note: this scenario portrays the least amount of change. That means that the worst-case scenario is that solar only grows by more than 700% in the next 30 years.
Even though the “reference” scenario shows promising numbers, it still isn’t enough. In 2015, the United States signed the Paris Agreement (Liu and Raftery 2021). This agreement set a target to keep the global temperature rise below 2°C. As the largest source of cumulative carbon emissions and the second-largest annual emitter, the US is not likely to meet its target on its current trajectory.
“To help remedy this situation, the Biden Administration has set the ambitious goals of decarbonizing the U.S. electricity grid by 2035 and shifting the nation onto an irreversible path to a 100% clean-energy economy, reaching net-zero emissions by 2050—while strengthening the American economy, creating well-paying domestic jobs, conserving natural resources, and ensuring that the benefits and costs of the clean energy transition are equitably distributed. Reaching these goals will require transitioning existing fossil-fuel-based power plants to zero-carbon energy sources. The result would be an unprecedented transformation of the grid and broader energy system over the next few decades—a challenging, but achievable, task.” - US Department of Energy
The goals set by the Biden Administration tell us that the second and third scenarios are a much more likely future than the first. Both of these scenarios predict solar going from 80GW in 2020 to more than 1,050GW in 2050.
Another important thing to note from the study is the projected cost. Particularly in the last decade, technological innovations and cost reductions in PV have consistently outperformed expert projections. Technological, economic, and geopolitical factors have driven a steep decline in PV costs in recent years.
“In 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office set an ambitious target for an 80% reduction in the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for utility-scale solar by 2020, a target that was met 3 years early. Now, DOE has established a new target… This target calls for PV LCOE from about $46/MWh in 2020 to $20/MWh in 2030.” - Department of Energy
The scenarios in this study follow cost and performance trajectories consistent with the 2030 LCOE target. Even without considering the history of solar meeting cost goals years in advance, solar electricity is the most inexpensive and sturdy foundation of a clean grid.
Conclusion:
The future is solar. No matter which scenario proves true, solar has a big part to play. As proven time and time again, solar technology will continue to become better and cheaper. This makes solar the best option, by far, for reaching the goals set not only by the US but by all nations on the Paris Agreement.
Interested in learning more about why solar is the best clean energy option for your home? Check out our blog post, "Other forms of renewable energy… which one is right for you?"
Are you ready to join the solar movement? Talk to one of our experts today.
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